Evaluating qualifiers context
It seems Montella might be discussing "Asian qualifiers," but he’s currently the coach for Turkey, so he may have commented in relation to that. It’s beneficial to focus on the claims regarding qualification for the current 2026 cycle. There are 6 direct spots and 1 playoff, making a 70% chance to qualify. I want to quantify it, mention historical trends, and provide comparative statistics across confederations. Let’s craft a clear response!Crafting concise response
I want to keep this response concise while mentioning potential difficulties like altitude and travel parity. It’s mathematically easier to qualify though. I think including a simple example table could help, but I'll stick with bullet points for clarity. I’ll also ask if the user wants data or historical rates. Here’s the final breakdown:
- Confirmed claim: 6 direct + 1 playoff; 3 eliminated; 65-70% chance for at least a playoff.
- Qualifying probabilities: 60% for direct, 70% for playoff, 30% eliminated.
- Historical comparison of 40-50%.
- WC expansion to 48 changed slots.
- Caveats: strong teams like Uruguay, Brazil, Argentina; tough away games. 
- Expected points threshold for direct qualification is around 27-28 points.Assessing qualification thresholds
With the 6.5 spots available, the projected points threshold for the 6th spot could be around 22-24 points, while for the playoff, it’s likely near 20-22 points. However, I should note that the schedule consists of 18 matches due to a double round-robin format, so the thresholds may vary. If the user is interested, I can pull current standings and calculate probable thresholds based on ELO or points per game, but I might want to avoid using the network for that. Let’s write this up!
是的，这话从赛制上说基本成立，尤其是本周期。
- 现行南美世预赛（通向2026年）共有10队双循环18轮，前6直接出线，第7打跨洲附加赛；只有第8–10名被淘汰。也就是70%至少进附加赛，60%直接出线，淘汰仅30%。
- 对比以往周期：过去通常是4或4.5个名额（40%直通，最多50%含附加赛）。世界杯扩军到48队后，南美名额增至6.5，晋级门槛显著降低。
- 经验门槛（估算）：18轮背景下，以往第4/5名常在27–28分/≈25–27分；现在第6名大致落在22–24分，第7名（附加赛）约20–22分，当然具体要看赛季对手互咬情况和净胜球。
- 赛程强度仍高：长途旅行、海拔与客场环境使单场难度不低，但从概率上，活到至少附加赛的“容错率”前所未有地高。
如果你想，我可以按当前积分形势推一版保级线/出线线的区间预估，或和其他洲（欧足联、亚足联等）的出线比例做更细对比。